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Spain ponders whether it should get its Gold out of the United States
After a volatile week, the silver price prediction from UBS remains $70 for December and $80 for September 2027. The Silver price recovered to $64.48 an ounce on Friday, clawing back less than a third of Thursday's losses.
The BOJ is expected to raise interest rates to 1.25%, while Ueda's policy guidance could decide whether USD/JPY extends its decline toward 150.
Higher US interest rates complicate the gold price forecast, but UBS still projects a recovery to $4,600 by December. UBS's $5,400 gold price forecast for September 2027 implies a gain of around 24% from Friday's close, even though the bank expects two Federal Reserve rate increases this year.
EUR/USD has struggled to build on the rebound from the July low, with recent price action reflecting a lack of conviction on either side. This week's ECB rate hike and hawkish guidance did little to resolve the stalemate, leaving the Euro searching for a fresh directional catalyst.
Stronger core inflation favours MUFG's bearish Euro outlook, with the bank now expecting a September Fed hike and EUR/USD closing below 1.16. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1599, down 0.10% on the day, as stronger US core inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
UBS expects further Yuan gains through mid-2027, with strong exports supporting the currency despite low inflation and an unfavourable rate gap. The US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate closed Friday near 6.7083, extending a year in which the pair has fallen more than 4%.
Gold fell 1.8% last week and is now down for a third consecutive week, suggesting that momentum continues to fade following the powerful surge we saw in August. On Friday, the precious metal initially fell in reaction to the US CPI data but then rallied sharply from its lows immediately afterwards in a classic “sell the news” reaction, before fading into the close.
Stronger core inflation favours MUFG's bearish Euro scenario, with the bank now expecting a September Fed hike and EUR/USD closing below 1.16. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1599, down 0.10% on the day, as stronger US core inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
Pound Sterling's GDP-driven gains face a policy test as ING expects no Bank of England hike, while the ECB's inflation outlook points towards further tightening. The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate ended the trading week near 1.1663, up 0.24% on the day, however analysts at ING still expect a retreat towards 1.15 in Q4.
Central bank decisions will dominate the calendar, but with both hikes largely expected, energy prices, US yields and lingeri.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Doji high guards bulls as Fed bets bite
As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments has been the neutral behavior displayed by gold in the short term. Over the last four trading sessions, price action has registered only a modest move of around -0.36%, a dynamic that highlights the recent lack of momentum around the metal.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bulls break 0.8150 as CPI fuels Fed bets
Gold tightens between key support and resistance as a breakout above $4,443 could signal a second bullish leg.
