
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD starts US CPI week on flat note around $63.50
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD starts US CPI week on flat note around $63.50
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD starts US CPI week on flat note around $63.50

Gold retreats from June 17 highest amid USD uptick; holds above $4,300 pivotal support

Gold resumes advance on Friday after bulls paused previous day and hit new seven- high ($4371), on track for the biggest weekly gain since the third week of January.

Knowing how to trade the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most important measures for inflation, is an essential skill for all types of traders, no matter their level of expertise. The CPI report has the power to shape central bank monetary policies and can send ripples through international markets.

The Dow Jones Index reached new record highs last week as strong company earnings and continued buying of AI-related stocks lifted market confidence. Reports that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen also helped improve sentiment and pushed oil prices lower.

USD/CAD opens the new week trading at its lowest level since early June, breaking lower on Friday following the release of a vastly divergent set of labour market data for July, continuing a trend seen across other economic figures over recent months.

The Australian dollar enters the week on a six-week winning streak, but the rally could face an important test from the RBA and US CPI. Markets have priced out a near-term RBA hike following softer Q2 inflation, leaving the US dollar and incoming US data increasingly important for AUD/USD.

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Large speculators just hit a 2-year bullish extreme in silver — And the commercials are shifting with them

It's rare that the Euro isn't the major driver of the Dollar basket, because after all, it is a whopping 57.6% component of DXY. But the reality is sentiment matters, as does positioning, and if we're seeing that massive carry trade in USD/JPY unwind with USD selling and JPY gaining, well even the larger major pair of EUR/USD can be impacted.

Gold has delivered its strongest weekly advance since January after breaking decisively above a multi-week consolidation pattern, marking the most significant technical development since the March decline began. The rally has already reclaimed a major resistance zone and shifted attention toward the broader yearly downtrend, but buyers still need confirmation that this week's breakout can develop into something more durable.

Silver closed 3.29% higher after weak payrolls cut September hike odds, driving short-covering and fresh buying above the 50-day MA.

USD/JPY heads into the week with yen shorts far less stretched than before the intervention episode of late July, reducing positioning risk. The key event this week is US inflation, which could materially shift expectations for Fed hikes over the next 12 months.

Dollar Index weakness, a gold breakout and copper's pullback put key support and resistance levels in focus ahead of the next major market move.