Gold falls below $4,300 on Fed hawkish signals

XAU/USD: near-term bearish, with a demand-side cushion. The reported rise in the market-implied chance of an October Fed hike—from 48.7% to 69.7% over a week—strengthens the headwind for gold: higher expected US rates can lift yields and the dollar, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The price break below $4,300 may reinforce that pressure if hawkish Fed comments continue to shift rate expectations.

The move is not one-sided. The article also cites strong Chinese gold imports and ETF buying, which could provide physical-demand support and limit follow-through lower. The bearish interpretation would weaken if Fed rhetoric or incoming data reduce hike expectations, or if yields and the dollar retreat; continued hawkish signals would keep gold vulnerable. Traders should watch subsequent Fed remarks, US rate expectations and Treasury yields, the dollar, and evidence that Chinese demand persists.