Gold: Next leg higher toward $5,000 – TD Securities

XAU/USD: medium-term bullish thesis, near-term headwinds. TD Securities’ view is that investor, ETF and central-bank buying could support gold even if US rates remain high, with a sustained move above $5,000/oz framed as a possibility into 2027—not a near-term catalyst or guarantee. The bank also argues that if the Fed delivers fewer hikes than markets have priced, that could ease pressure on non-yielding gold.

The immediate tension is that stronger rate expectations and a firmer dollar can weigh on gold; FXStreet’s page reported XAU/USD around $4,315, down 1% on the day when published. So the outlook is mixed across time horizons: supportive flows may underpin prices over the medium term, while hawkish repricing can remain a short-term drag. Traders should monitor Fed expectations, the dollar, ETF and central-bank demand, and whether discretionary buying returns; the forecast would be less persuasive if those flows fade or real yields keep rising.