Silver Price Forecast: Bulls threaten bearish setup after Fed hike

The immediate implication for XAG/USD is cautiously bullish, despite the Fed hike. The market appears to be responding less to the rate increase itself and more to the accompanying decline in Treasury yields and softer dollar momentum—both supportive for a non-yielding, dollar-priced metal. FXStreet reported silver near $65.41, up more than 3.9% on the session, while noting that RSI had recovered above its neutral level.

The key market issue is whether this is a genuine trend reversal or merely a post-Fed relief rally. Silver remains within a broader bearish technical structure, but a sustained break above the 100-day SMA near $66.56 would weaken the head-and-shoulders interpretation and expose the $67.00 area, followed potentially by $70.00 and the 200-day SMA near $73.16. Such a move would likely require continued weakness in real yields and the US dollar, plus confirmation from gold and broader commodity-risk sentiment.

Conversely, rejection near the $66.56–$67.00 resistance zone would preserve the bearish setup. A break back below the pattern neckline would refocus attention on the 50-day SMA near $62.86, then approximately $61.01–$60.00; the article identifies a longer-range measured objective near $55.00 if the formation fully resolves lower.

For traders, the Fed decision creates a policy-versus-market-pricing tension: an actual hike is normally negative for silver, but falling yields and a less forceful dollar response can dominate in the short term. The bullish interpretation is that markets view the hike as sufficiently priced in or see the future rate path as less restrictive. The bearish interpretation is that yields and the dollar may rebound once post-decision positioning settles, exposing silver to renewed downside.

The most important follow-through indicators are US real yields, the Dollar Index, gold’s ability to hold its rebound, and whether XAG/USD can establish itself above $66.56 rather than briefly trade through it. Industrial-demand expectations and risk appetite will matter over the medium term, but the immediate directional driver remains the interaction between Fed-rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the dollar.