Bitcoin dip-buying rises below $77,100, but spot demand lags: Bitfinex

Market impact: bearish in the near term, with a fragile dip-buying bid.

The key market signal is the divergence between derivatives and spot markets. Futures open interest recovered to about $52.15 billion while funding remained positive, indicating that traders were rebuilding long exposure even as Bitcoin made lower highs and lower lows. That provides short-term support, but it also increases the risk of another liquidation wave if spot demand fails to improve.

The more important weakness is in institutional and U.S. spot flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $450.4 million in net outflows, while Coinbase’s discount widened, suggesting weaker U.S. buying pressure relative to other venues. This makes the futures-led rebound less reliable: leveraged traders may be attempting to front-run a recovery without confirmation from cash-market buyers.

For BTCUSD, the loss of the $77,100 range floor shifts the immediate bias toward downside continuation or volatile consolidation. The article identifies the $74,985–$75,412 region as the first important demand area, followed by approximately $73,500. A sustained break of those zones would increase the probability of a move toward the $71,300 area, where a larger concentration of holder cost basis is reported. These are market-structure reference points, not guaranteed support levels.

The selling pressure may also be self-reinforcing. Recent buyers accumulated roughly 1.23 million BTC between $77,100 and $81,300; with price now below that range, some holders face unrealized losses and may sell into failed rebounds. Rising exchange deposits from short-term holders reinforce the risk of supply emerging on rallies.

The bullish interpretation is that leverage has not reached an overheated level, and dip-buying could eventually stabilize price if ETF outflows moderate and spot volume expands. However, a recovery above $77,100 would be more credible only if accompanied by stronger spot demand; derivatives positioning alone is insufficient confirmation.

Macro conditions add downside sensitivity. Bitcoin’s recent correlation with U.S. equities increased sharply, while the 10-year Treasury yield and real yield moved higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. This leaves BTC vulnerable to further pressure if yields remain elevated or broader risk appetite deteriorates.

Traders should monitor:

daily closes relative to $77,100, ETF net flows, the Coinbase premium/discount, futures open interest and funding, liquidation intensity, and whether spot volume strengthens during any rebound. The most bearish setup would be rising open interest and positive funding alongside continued ETF outflows and declining spot prices; that would indicate leveraged longs are absorbing supply rather than genuine demand reversing the trend.