EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1500 to remain key support level for Fed's Day

Market impact: mildly bearish EUR/USD into the September 16, 2026 Fed decision, but highly event-dependent.

The article’s key market implication is that EUR/USD is trading near 1.1545–1.1548, while the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. A hike appears largely priced in; therefore, the dollar reaction will depend more on the Fed’s guidance, projections, and comments on whether another hike is likely in December.

A hawkish hike—particularly if the Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and validates expectations for another increase—would likely lift US rate expectations and Treasury yields, supporting the dollar and increasing downside pressure on EUR/USD. In that scenario, the 1.1500 area becomes the primary technical and psychological test. A decisive break could signal that the market is repricing the expected policy path rather than merely reacting to the rate announcement.

Conversely, the impact could be neutral or bullish for EUR/USD if the hike is accompanied by guidance that it is primarily precautionary or close to the end of the tightening cycle. The ABN Amro interpretation cited by FXStreet frames the move as “inflation insurance,” with the future path dependent on inflation data. That creates room for a “hawkish hike but dovish forward guidance” outcome, potentially triggering dollar profit-taking if markets had already positioned for a more aggressive trajectory.

Technically, the pair retains a mildly bearish near-term bias while below the reported 20-day EMA near 1.1590. A sustained move above that level would weaken the immediate bearish setup, whereas repeated failure below it would leave 1.1500 vulnerable. The RSI is described as soft but not oversold, meaning the pair may still have room to decline if the Fed surprises hawkishly rather than being technically exhausted.

Trading focus:

monitor the Fed’s assessment of inflation persistence, the projected path for future hikes, US front-end yields, and the reaction around 1.1500. The initial move may be volatile and unreliable; the more important signal will be whether EUR/USD holds above 1.1500 after the statement and press conference, or whether a sustained dollar repricing develops. European rate expectations and any ECB guidance remain important offsets to the US policy impulse.