Euro: 1.150 target in focus against US Dollar – ING

EUR/USD: Mildly bearish near term, with the 1.1500 area acting as a downside reference.

The key market implication is that the euro’s recent resilience appears vulnerable to a renewed US-dollar repricing rather than supported by a strong independent euro trend. ING judges EUR/USD to be close to short-term fair value, while identifying global equities and short-term interest rates as the pair’s dominant drivers. That makes the currency particularly exposed to a hawkish Federal Reserve outcome on September 16, 2026.

A hawkish Fed could lift US front-end yields and the dollar while simultaneously pressuring equities. That combination would be negative for EUR/USD through both the interest-rate differential and a broader reduction in risk appetite. Under that scenario, ING’s 1.1500 target becomes a plausible near-term downside objective rather than merely a longer-term forecast.

The bullish counterargument is that improving German ZEW expectations and the lingering effect of the ECB’s recent hawkish hike may continue to support the euro, particularly if the Fed fails to deliver a more restrictive message or if US yields decline after the decision. In that case, the pair could remain supported around fair value instead of extending toward 1.1500.

Trading significance:

the immediate bias is event-driven and asymmetric around the Fed. EUR/USD downside risk would increase most clearly if US yields rise alongside a decline in equities. A dovish or less hawkish Fed, softer US rate expectations, or stronger-than-expected German data would weaken the bearish case. Traders should monitor the Fed’s rate guidance, the reaction in two-year Treasury yields, equity-market breadth, final euro-area/German data revisions, and whether EUR/USD can hold above its pre-Fed range.