90% of Gold and Silver traders expect a 0.25% rate rise [Video]

The news is near-term bearish for XAGUSD, but the risk is increasingly asymmetric around the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, September 16, 2026.

A widely expected 25-basis-point rate increase may already be reflected in silver prices, particularly if the reported 90% expectation is representative of positioning. The larger market catalyst is likely to be the Fed’s dot plot and Chair Warsh’s forward guidance, rather than the rate decision itself. A hike accompanied by indications of another increase in December would likely lift U.S. yields and the dollar, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver and pressuring XAGUSD.

Silver could underperform gold because it carries an additional industrial-growth sensitivity. A more restrictive Fed path would not only support the dollar but could also weaken expectations for manufacturing, investment, and global demand—negative factors for silver’s industrial component. The same combination could weigh on equity valuations and broader risk appetite.

However, the immediate reaction could be mixed or even initially bullish if the Fed delivers the expected hike but signals that policy is near its peak. Recent resilience despite stronger-than-expected CPI suggests that some traders may already be positioned for a hawkish outcome. If the decision fails to exceed those expectations, short covering could support silver despite higher rates.

The technical backdrop described by FXStreet is non-trending and range-bound, with repeated reversals and limited follow-through. That reduces the reliability of directional signals and increases the probability of sharp two-way volatility around the announcement rather than a clean trend. A break from the recent range would be more meaningful than intraday movement within it.

Key variables for traders:

the Fed’s December-rate guidance, U.S. dollar and Treasury-yield reaction, whether silver breaks its recent range, and whether post-decision price action confirms or rejects the initial move. The main bullish risk to the bearish interpretation is an already-priced hike followed by less-hawkish guidance; the main bearish risk is a hike plus explicit support for another increase and sustained dollar strength.