Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Key Tests as BTC Demand Recovers

Market impact: cautiously bullish, but not yet confirmed.

The key market signal is a positive divergence: Bitcoin’s apparent-demand contractions are becoming less severe, suggesting that supply is being absorbed more effectively, while price remains below its short-term moving-average cluster. This improves the medium-term setup, but by itself does not establish a trend reversal. The article also notes that the current demand recovery is still materially weaker than the expansions associated with Bitcoin’s stronger advances in late 2024 and 2025.

For BTCUSD, the immediate battleground is the $78,000–$79,100 resistance zone. A sustained recovery through that area would provide technical confirmation that improving underlying demand is translating into actual spot buying and could encourage short covering and renewed momentum positioning. Failure near the cluster would instead reinforce the interpretation that demand has merely stabilized rather than entered a durable expansion phase.

The downside risk is concentrated around $76,400, the recent local low. A break below that area would weaken the demand-recovery thesis and expose the psychologically important $75,000 region. In that scenario, the divergence would be interpreted bearishly: buyers may be absorbing some supply, but not enough to overcome continued selling or macro pressure.

The options expiry is more likely to create short-lived positioning and volatility effects than a lasting directional impulse. Bitcoin’s options positioning was somewhat call-heavy, but expiry removes that exposure and leaves spot demand, leverage, and macro liquidity as the dominant drivers. Ethereum’s comparatively stronger short-term momentum could support broader crypto sentiment, although its more defensive options positioning argues against assuming a synchronized altcoin breakout.

The most important external catalyst is the U.S. CPI release, particularly after the hotter-than-expected August PPI data cited in the article. A softer CPI outcome could reduce rate-pressure concerns, support liquidity-sensitive assets, and help BTC challenge resistance. An upside CPI surprise could strengthen yields and the dollar, pressuring crypto despite the improving on-chain demand data.

Trader focus:

whether apparent demand continues to form higher highs, whether BTC can reclaim $78,000–$79,100 with follow-through, and whether the move is supported by spot activity rather than perpetual-futures leverage. Until those conditions align, the setup remains constructive but range-bound and highly sensitive to macro data, rather than an established bullish reversal.