USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar recovery, likely to be tested at 155.20

USD/JPY impact: bearish near-term bias, but highly data-dependent

The key market signal is that USD/JPY remains below the broken 155.20 support area, which now acts as resistance. That keeps the recent downtrend technically intact and makes any rebound toward 155.20 vulnerable to renewed selling. The article identifies further resistance near 156.76 and 158.00, while downside reference points are 152.10, 149.50, and a longer-term measured target near 146.60.

The immediate fundamental driver is the upcoming US CPI release on September 11, 2026. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, lift US yields, and could help USD/JPY retest 155.20 despite the bearish technical structure. A softer CPI result would likely undermine the recent dollar recovery, reduce rate-hike expectations, and increase the probability of a move back toward 152.10.

Higher oil prices create a two-sided effect. They worsen Japan’s import bill and growth outlook, which is negative for the yen, but they also intensify US inflation concerns and may keep Federal Reserve policy restrictive. Consequently, oil strength does not automatically imply sustained USD/JPY upside; the pair’s reaction will depend on whether markets focus more heavily on the Japan growth shock or the US inflation and interest-rate channel.

Trading interpretation:

the setup is mixed fundamentally but bearish technically below 155.20. A sustained recovery above that level would weaken the breakdown signal and expose 156.76, whereas repeated rejection there would strengthen the case for renewed yen appreciation. The most important confirmation factors are US CPI, Treasury yields, oil prices, Federal Reserve repricing, and any more hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. High volatility and false breaks are likely while these forces conflict.