Silver Price Forecast: Bulls struggle below the 100-day SMA

Market impact: mildly bearish for XAG/USD in the short term, but not decisively bearish.

Silver’s failure to sustain gains below the 100-day SMA near $67.28 leaves the recent recovery technically fragile. This area now represents an important resistance/confluence zone; repeated rejection would reinforce the view that upside momentum is fading and could attract profit-taking toward support around $64.80, followed by the $62.89–$60.97 region. A sustained break beneath that band would materially worsen the medium-term technical structure, while a daily close above the 100-day SMA would weaken the bearish interpretation and reopen the path toward approximately $71 and the 200-day SMA near $72.

The macro bias is also a near-term headwind. Stronger US employment data have increased expectations of a possible 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting, raising real-yield and opportunity-cost pressure on non-yielding silver. Higher oil prices add an additional complication: they may support inflation expectations and delay monetary easing, even though they can also improve the industrial-demand outlook for silver.

The downside is being partly cushioned by a softer US dollar. That creates a mixed setup: firmer Fed expectations favor the dollar and weigh on silver, while dollar weakness and continued demand for precious metals limit the downside. The next major directional catalyst is US inflation data—PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11, 2026—which could shift rate expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. Hotter-than-expected data would likely increase pressure on XAG/USD; softer data could help silver reclaim the 100-day SMA.

What traders should monitor:

the reaction around $67.17–$67.28, the dollar’s response to PPI/CPI, US Treasury real yields, oil-driven inflation expectations, and whether silver holds the $64.80 support area. The principal risk to the bearish view is a combination of softer US inflation, renewed dollar weakness, and stronger gold or broader precious-metals demand.