Coldcard Exploiter Moves 45% of Bitcoin Stolen in Wave 3

The immediate BTCUSD impact is mildly bearish but primarily sentiment-driven, not a material supply shock. The 97.09 BTC already moved—reported at roughly $7.8 million—would be small relative to Bitcoin’s overall market liquidity. However, the risk is that transferred coins become exchange deposits or are swapped through liquidity venues, creating a visible overhang and short-term selling pressure. The article does not establish that the funds have been sold.

The more important market variable is the remaining inventory. Galaxy estimates that approximately 82% of Coldcard-related stolen funds remain under attacker control, while the estimated total theft has risen to about 1,806 BTC after identifying additional victim addresses. That creates a continuing, event-driven supply risk: further movements from large wallets—especially if routed toward centralized exchanges—could trigger sharper downside reactions than the initial transfers themselves.

CoinJoin activity and prior swaps into Ether through THORChain make attribution and recovery more difficult. This raises the probability of intermittent “stolen BTC” headlines, blockchain-monitor alerts, and exchange-related concerns, potentially increasing volatility and reducing risk appetite across crypto even if the actual net selling remains limited. The effect could be more pronounced in altcoins and crypto-related equities than in BTC itself because those assets generally have thinner liquidity and higher sensitivity to security headlines.

Near-term bias:

bearish-to-mixed for BTCUSD. The bearish case strengthens if moved coins are identified entering exchanges, brokers, or known liquidation wallets. The impact should remain contained if funds stay in CoinJoin or dormant addresses and no exchange liquidation occurs.

Medium-term implication:

the incident is more damaging to confidence in affected Coldcard devices and self-custody practices than to Bitcoin’s monetary thesis. It could increase demand for wallet migrations, firmware verification, and exchange custody, while raising scrutiny of hardware-wallet security and vendor disclosure.

Traders should monitor:

• additional waves of wallet activity;
• transfers to centralized exchanges or major OTC-linked addresses;
• confirmation of actual BTC-to-fiat or BTC-to-stablecoin liquidation;
• whether Galaxy or other blockchain investigators revise the stolen-fund estimate;
• evidence of a confirmed fourth attack wave; and
• whether broader market flows, such as ETF demand, absorb or offset any attacker-related selling pressure.