AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Short -Term Forecast for 09/07/2026

The main market implication is downside risk for USD/JPY, with the pair’s break below its 200-day EMA signaling that the previous multi-month uptrend is losing technical support. This is bearish for USD/JPY in the near term and could encourage further yen appreciation, particularly if the pair fails to reclaim the broken support zone. The move also suggests that markets may be reassessing the relative US–Japan rate outlook or increasing expectations of official Japanese support for the yen.

US CPI is the key catalyst that could determine whether this is a genuine trend reversal or only a technical correction. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would likely lift Treasury yields and reduce expectations for US easing, supporting the dollar and potentially producing a sharp USD/JPY rebound. A softer reading would reinforce lower US-rate expectations, weigh on the dollar, and increase the probability that the break below long-term support develops into a broader decline. Volatility and false breaks are therefore likely to rise around the data.

The yen signal is not uniformly risk-off: AUD/USD remains technically supported near 0.72, while NZD/USD is weaker after a more cautious RBNZ stance. That divergence points more toward currency-specific and interest-rate positioning than a broad, clean-based move across all dollar pairs. If USD weakness dominates, AUD/USD may hold up better than NZD/USD; if US yields rise, the high-beta currencies—especially the New Zealand dollar—could underperform.

For traders, the important confirmation points are whether USD/JPY remains below its 200-day EMA, how US front-end yields react to CPI, and whether the yen strengthens across other crosses such as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. A sustained recovery in USD/JPY would weaken the bearish technical interpretation, while continued selling alongside falling US yields would increase the risk of a larger medium-term yen rally. Japanese policy or intervention rhetoric is an additional risk, as it could accelerate yen strength but also create abrupt two-way price action.