XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold defies sellers around $4,500

Market impact: Mildly bullish for XAU/USD, but highly event-dependent.

Gold’s resilience near $4,500 reflects a combination of softer US-dollar expectations and reduced confidence in an immediate September Federal Reserve rate hike. Waller’s “wait one meeting” stance lowers the near-term risk of higher real yields, which is supportive for a non-yielding asset such as gold. The reaction is therefore more consistent with a dovish repricing of US monetary policy than with a purely technical rebound.

The immediate implication is that downside attempts may attract demand while XAU/USD remains above the article’s cited moving-average support zone around $4,482–$4,397. However, the technical structure is not yet an unambiguous trend acceleration: the moving averages are described as broadly flat, while momentum is positive but not overextended. A sustained move above the cited $4,533 resistance area would strengthen the case that buyers are regaining medium-term control; failure there would leave gold vulnerable to consolidation or a reversal.

The key near-term catalyst is the US labor-market and inflation sequence: August payrolls on Friday, September 4, 2026, followed by August CPI the following week. A weak employment report or softer inflation would reinforce expectations for delayed or fewer Fed hikes, potentially weakening the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting gold. Conversely, stronger labor data or sticky inflation could revive rate-hike expectations, lift real yields, and expose XAU/USD to profit-taking around the $4,500–$4,533 region.

Geopolitical risk adds a two-sided complication. Middle East hostilities can support gold through safe-haven demand, but an associated oil shock could also raise inflation expectations and Treasury yields, creating a bearish offset through tighter Fed expectations. Improving Ukraine-related diplomacy or a broader recovery in risk appetite could similarly reduce defensive demand, even if lower yields remain gold-positive.

Overall assessment:

near-term bias is constructive but conditional, with the dollar, US real yields, payrolls, CPI, and geopolitical headlines likely to dominate follow-through. The most important confirmation would be whether gold holds above former resistance near $4,500 while US yields and the dollar remain under pressure.