Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Waits on Warsh as Dollar Weakness Stalls

Market impact: Mixed, with high event risk for XAUUSD.

Gold is caught between two opposing forces. Treasury purchases of longer-dated bonds support the metal by potentially lowering long-end yields, weakening the dollar, and reinforcing concerns about debt monetization or policy-driven financial repression. That backdrop helped produce a sharp rally, but the effect is being offset by firmer inflation data, stronger jobless-claims figures, and Federal Reserve officials resisting the assumption that policy can become less restrictive.

The main near-term catalyst is Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, August 28, 2026. A message that prioritizes inflation control, questions Treasury influence over bond-market pricing, or signals tolerance for higher rates would likely support the dollar and real yields, creating downside pressure for non-yielding gold. Conversely, a more accommodative interpretation—particularly if Warsh accepts lower long-term yields or emphasizes financial-market signals over further tightening—could revive the dollar selloff and reopen upside momentum in XAUUSD.

The reaction function is therefore more important than the speech itself: gold needs weaker yields and a softer dollar to sustain its bullish trend, while sticky inflation limits the ability of markets to price aggressive easing. A hawkish policy interpretation could extend the current pullback; a dovish interpretation could trigger a renewed test of the recent $4,697.11 high. The article identifies $4,541.88–$4,524.29 as an important lower support zone, where a break would weaken the medium-term technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

The longer-term downside may be cushioned by persistent geopolitical demand and stronger Chinese gold imports, but those supportive factors were not sufficient to dominate Thursday’s policy-driven trading. The most important cross-market signals are the DXY, U.S. real yields, the long end of the Treasury curve, and September Federal Reserve rate expectations. Follow-through in those markets after Warsh speaks will determine whether the Treasury-buyback narrative regains control or whether inflation and tighter-policy expectations remain dominant.