Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD reclaims 100-day SMA, eyes $70

The news is modestly bullish for XAG/USD in the short term, because silver’s recovery above the 100-day SMA at $68.38 suggests buyers are defending an important intermediate trend reference. The positive RSI reading reinforces upside momentum, but the broader pattern still contains lower highs and lower lows, so this is better interpreted as a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed medium-term reversal.

A sustained break above $70.00 would be technically significant: it could trigger momentum buying and expose the 200-day SMA near $72.22, with the psychological $75.00 area becoming the next upside reference. Failure to hold the 100-day SMA would weaken the bullish setup and shift attention toward support around $64.50–$65.00, followed by the August 19 low near $62.19.

The fundamental transmission remains closely tied to the US dollar and Treasury yields. Because silver is dollar-denominated and non-yielding, a softer dollar or lower yields would improve the macro backdrop for XAG/USD; renewed dollar strength, higher real yields, or hawkish interest-rate expectations could invalidate the technical rebound. Silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal also makes it more sensitive than gold to shifts in global growth expectations, particularly through manufacturing, electronics, solar, and Chinese demand.

The immediate market bias is therefore bullish but conditional. Traders should monitor whether XAG/USD can close and remain above $70 rather than merely test it, alongside the dollar index, US real yields, gold’s direction, and incoming US inflation or employment data. A failure above $70 followed by a loss of the 100-day SMA would raise the risk that the move is a short-covering bounce within the existing medium-term downtrend.