ING Euro to Dollar Forecast: 1.17 by September 2026, 1.18 by 2027

Market impact: Moderately bullish EUR/USD, but highly conditional

• ING’s targets imply limited additional upside from the reported 1.1660 area: approximately 0.3% to 1.17 by September 30, 2026, and around 1.2% to 1.18 by year-end if the dollar’s broader decline continues. The source headline references 2027, but the article body explicitly states 1.18 for year-end, apparently referring to 2026.
• The main driver is anticipated US-dollar weakness, not a major improvement in Eurozone fundamentals. That distinction matters: EUR/USD can rise even without strong European growth if US policy uncertainty, Treasury-market stress, trade tensions, or expectations for less restrictive Fed policy reduce demand for dollars.
• ING’s positioning argument adds a potential short-term momentum channel. If asset managers and leveraged funds remain relatively underweight euros, further dollar-negative news could trigger additional EUR buying as positions are rebuilt. This supports a continuation move rather than an immediate deep reversal, but positioning can also become a source of profit-taking after a sharp rally.
• 1.1660/70 is the key near-term confirmation zone cited by ING. Holding above it would preserve the bullish interpretation and keep 1.17 within reach. A decisive break lower would suggest that the recent dollar-led advance has become overstretched and would weaken the case for an immediate move toward 1.18. This is a conditional market reference from the source, not an independent technical forecast.
• The largest upside risk to EUR/USD is a dovish or confidence-negative US repricing—for example, evidence that US policy uncertainty is damaging the dollar or that markets expect easier Fed policy. Conversely, stronger US inflation data or a hawkish Jackson Hole message from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, challenging ING’s forecast path.
• Euro-specific data, particularly Germany’s August Ifo survey, could provide confirmation, but the article frames US developments as more consequential. A weak European release alongside resilient US data would make the 1.18 target harder to achieve.
• Trading implication: the report reinforces a medium-term bullish EUR/USD bias, but it is not a fresh catalyst by itself. The forecast is most vulnerable to US inflation, Fed communication, Treasury-market developments, and any deterioration in broader risk appetite. A risk-off shock could support the dollar and invalidate the positioning-based bullish thesis.