Silver Price Forecast: XAG pullback tests 100-day SMA

Market impact: mixed, with near-term downside risk but the broader technical structure still constructive for XAG/USD.

The failure to sustain gains above $70.00 signals that this psychological resistance remains an effective supply zone. The retreat toward the 100-day SMA at $68.42 is therefore an important technical test: holding this average would support the interpretation of a normal pullback within the prevailing higher-high/higher-low structure, while a decisive break would increase the probability of deeper corrective selling.

A sustained move below $68.42 would weaken short-term momentum and expose the $65.64 and $62.19 areas, with the 50-day SMA near $61.34 representing a further downside reference. This could encourage liquidation of bullish positions and widen silver’s underperformance relative to gold, particularly because silver generally carries greater sensitivity to growth expectations and risk appetite.

Conversely, a defense of the 100-day SMA followed by a recovery through $70.00 would restore upside momentum and shift attention toward the 200-day SMA near $72.13, with the prior cycle high around $78.83 becoming a longer-horizon objective. The fading but still bullish RSI suggests momentum has cooled rather than fully reversed, so confirmation from price acceptance above resistance is important before treating the pullback as complete.

For cross-asset markets, the main transmission channels are the US dollar, Treasury yields, gold, and industrial-growth expectations. A stronger dollar or higher real yields would increase pressure on the dollar-denominated, yieldless metal; softer yields, a weaker dollar, or renewed safe-haven demand would improve the rebound case. Silver’s industrial exposure also makes weaker global or Chinese growth expectations a downside risk that could invalidate a purely bullish technical interpretation.

Trader focus:

whether XAG/USD closes and holds below $68.42, whether $70.00 can be reclaimed, the behavior of gold and the dollar, and upcoming rate- and growth-sensitive data. Until one of those technical boundaries breaks decisively, the setup is best viewed as a bullish medium-term trend undergoing a potentially bearish short-term correction, rather than a confirmed trend reversal.