Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: High Safety Margin Despite Non-Accrual Challenges

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund trades at a 21% discount to NAV, reflecting market concerns over dividend sustainability and asset quality. MSDL's portfolio shrank for the fourth consecutive quarter since Q2'25, with cost-based non-accruals rising to 2.9% and NII per share down 9.4% year-over-year. Dividend coverage remains fragile at ~101% after a recent cut, raising the risk of further reductions if negative trends persist.