AUD/USD Price Forecast: Positive momentum points to further upside

Market impact: Moderately bullish AUD/USD, but increasingly dependent on confirmation.

The article describes a technical continuation setup rather than a new fundamental shock. AUD/USD is holding above its 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, while RSI near 65 and a positive MACD indicate that upside momentum remains intact without yet reaching an extreme condition. This supports continued near-term demand for AUD against USD.

The broader driver is US-dollar weakness: the article reports DXY near 98.90 and down 0.75% on the day, while AUD/USD was around 0.7118. If softer US yields, expectations of no further Fed tightening this year, or continued liquidity-related pressure on longer-term Treasury yields persist, the dollar leg could remain the main source of AUD/USD upside.

A second support is the possibility of RBA tightening expectations, with Rabobank highlighting November rate-hike risk. That would improve the AUD’s relative yield appeal and could attract carry-related flows. However, this is an expectations-based support rather than a confirmed policy change; Australian wage, inflation, employment and activity data remain important for validating it.

The immediate macro risk is Australia’s July employment report, with expectations for a substantially smaller jobs gain than in June and an unchanged 4.4% unemployment rate. A strong report could reinforce RBA-hike pricing and help AUD/USD challenge the 0.7150–0.7200 resistance area. A weak report would undermine the domestic-rate narrative and expose the pair to profit-taking, particularly because the rally is already approaching a technically significant barrier.

A sustained break above 0.7200 would materially improve the medium-term technical picture and bring the reported yearly peak near 0.7270 into focus. Conversely, rejection in the 0.7150–0.7200 zone would suggest that the move is losing momentum rather than establishing a new trend. The source identifies support around 0.7065 and 0.7036, with deeper moving-average support near 0.6996 and 0.6946.

Key invalidation risks:

renewed broad-based USD demand, higher US yields, a dovish repricing of the RBA outlook, weak Australian employment, deterioration in Chinese growth expectations, falling iron-ore prices, or a wider risk-off move. AUD is particularly sensitive to China-linked commodity demand and global risk appetite, so technical strength may not hold if those external drivers turn negative.

What traders should monitor next:

Australian employment details, RBA rate expectations, US Treasury yields and Fed communication, DXY direction, Chinese activity indicators, iron-ore prices, and whether AUD/USD can hold gains above the 0.7150–0.7200 resistance band.