AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rising 20-day EMA supports near-term bullish bias

Market impact: Mildly bullish for AUD/USD, but conditional.

The rising 20-day EMA indicates that the pair’s short-term trend remains constructive, with the cited 0.7045 area functioning as the key near-term test of whether buyers are defending the advance. Momentum is positive but not overextended, leaving room for further upside if price can clear the recent 0.7129 high.

The stronger fundamental support comes from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s warning that inflation remains too high and that further tightening may be required. This increases the relative yield appeal of the Australian dollar and could support AUD crosses if incoming data validate a more hawkish RBA path. However, the fact that AUD was reportedly underperforming despite those comments suggests the market is not treating the RBA signal as sufficient on its own; broader USD positioning and risk sentiment remain important offsets.

The immediate catalyst is the July Australian employment report, while the FOMC minutes may alter expectations for US policy. A soft Australian labor reading would weaken the case for additional RBA tightening and could undermine the EMA-supported bullish structure. Conversely, resilient employment combined with less-hawkish Fed guidance would reinforce the AUD/USD upside case. A hawkish Fed interpretation, stronger US data, or renewed risk aversion would favor the dollar and increase the probability of a break below the 20-day EMA.

The signal is therefore short-term bullish but event-risk sensitive, rather than a confirmed medium-term trend change. Traders should monitor the 0.7045 support zone, the 0.7129 recent high, the tone of the FOMC minutes, Australian employment details—not just the headline—and movements in commodity prices and broader risk appetite. A sustained break below the EMA would weaken the technical thesis; a confirmed move above the recent high would improve evidence that the bullish bias is gaining follow-through.