AUD/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier amid firm US Dollar

AUD/USD has a mildly bearish near-term bias, but the technical picture is not yet a confirmed breakdown. The pressure comes from both sides of the pair: hawkish Fed commentary may keep US rate expectations and the dollar supported, while Australia’s September flash composite PMI slowed to 50.8 from 52.7, pointing to weaker momentum even as activity remained just above the 50 expansion threshold.

The immediate test is whether AUD/USD holds the reported 0.7097 support. A sustained break would strengthen the downside case; holding there could leave the pair consolidating. On the upside, reclaiming the 20-day EMA near 0.7135 would weaken the bearish setup. These levels frame the near-term technical risk, rather than establish a forecast.

For traders, the key catalyst is whether Fed officials’ inflation concerns are reinforced by incoming US data and sustain dollar support. A softer US inflation or activity signal could ease that pressure; stronger Australian data could also help the Aussie recover. Until either side is confirmed, the impact is best viewed as short-term bearish-leaning but conditional, with support holding as the main risk to that view.