AUD/USD Price Forecast: Approaches four-year high near 0.7280

Market impact: Moderately bullish AUD/USD, but increasingly event-dependent.

The move toward 0.7277–0.7280 reflects two reinforcing forces: a more hawkish interpretation of RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s inflation comments and near-term US-dollar weakness ahead of the August US CPI release scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026. Markets are reportedly increasing the probability of RBA tightening, including potential hikes in September and November, which raises the relative yield appeal of the Australian dollar.

For AUD/USD, a sustained break and daily close above the four-year-high area would have significance beyond the immediate technical move: it could encourage trend-following flows and signal that the market is repricing the Australia–US policy-rate differential in favor of the AUD. The move could also support other pro-cyclical currencies and commodity-linked assets if it reflects broader dollar weakness rather than an Australia-specific development.

However, the setup is vulnerable to a reversal. The pair’s reported RSI near 69.5 indicates strong but stretched momentum, while the 0.7277–0.7280 region may attract profit-taking and option-related resistance. A softer-than-expected Australian policy outlook, disappointing Chinese or Australian growth data, or renewed risk aversion would weaken the bullish case.

The key near-term asymmetry is the US CPI reaction. A hotter inflation reading could lift Treasury yields, reduce expectations for easier US policy, and strengthen the dollar—potentially triggering a sharp rejection from the four-year-high zone. A benign CPI reading would reinforce the current AUD/USD advance by weakening the USD and supporting expectations that the RBA can remain relatively restrictive.

Technically, the article identifies 0.7158, the 20-day EMA, as the first meaningful downside reference. Holding above it would preserve the short-term bullish structure; a daily close below it would suggest that the move toward 0.7280 was losing momentum and that a deeper correction was developing.

What traders should monitor:

the September 11 US CPI data, US yields and dollar-index reaction, RBA rate expectations for September and November, Chinese activity indicators, and whether AUD/USD can establish acceptance above 0.7280 rather than merely test it intraday.