AUD/USD Price Forecast: On track to revisit four-year high near 0.7280

The report is near-term bullish for AUD/USD, but the catalyst is primarily US-dollar weakness and softer Fed tightening expectations, not a fresh improvement in Australian fundamentals. FXStreet reports that the pair was around 0.7203 on September 4, 2026, with markets reducing the implied probability of a September Fed hike from roughly 70% to about 50%. That shift lowers the expected US–Australia rate advantage and supports the Australian dollar.

A move toward the 0.7280 area would represent a test of important multi-year resistance. The technical setup favors continuation while AUD/USD remains above the reported 0.7200 support zone and its 20-day EMA near 0.7136. However, the RSI near 66 indicates bullish momentum is becoming extended, increasing the risk of profit-taking or a sharp reaction if the pair fails to clear resistance.

The immediate market risk is the US data and rates reaction. The article suggests August US payrolls may have less influence than the following week’s inflation report because Fed communication has placed greater emphasis on the inflation path. A weak payrolls result, softer yields, or benign CPI would reinforce the bearish-USD interpretation and improve the probability of an AUD/USD break above 0.7280. Conversely, stronger employment data or firmer inflation could revive Fed-hike expectations, lift Treasury yields, and trigger a reversal toward 0.7136 or below.

The broader implication is positive for other risk-sensitive and commodity-linked currencies, particularly NZD, while potentially supporting gold and equities through lower US-rate expectations. That linkage is conditional: a rise in AUD/USD driven only by dollar repricing is more vulnerable than one supported by stronger Chinese demand, commodity prices, or a hawkish RBA outlook.

Trading focus:

monitor US two-year yields, Fed rate pricing, August payrolls, the subsequent US CPI release, Chinese activity indicators, and whether AUD/USD can sustain trade above 0.7200 while approaching 0.7280. The bullish case weakens materially if the pair loses the 20-day EMA or if US data causes a renewed hawkish repricing of the Fed.