
The White House Thinks the Fed Is About to Hike Into a Slowdown
The White House's top economist built a statistical case that inflation is already dead, presented it as a hypothetical dissenter's argument, then handed it to no one.
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The White House's top economist built a statistical case that inflation is already dead, presented it as a hypothetical dissenter's argument, then handed it to no one.

Albert Edwards, of Société Générale, said current gasoline prices are more closely reflecting crude oil prices of $150 a barrel.

Markets have almost fully priced a 25 bp interest rate hike by the U.S. Fed, while a second 25 bp hike later this year carries a 50% implied probability. U.S. equities, with some exceptions, remain attractive as markets have largely priced in a rate hike and potential further tightening, minimizing near-term policy surprise risk.

During the quarter, we added 8 new positions and exited 6 positions, bringing the number of positions in the Fund to 43. We re-established positions in two previously owned managed care companies, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and Elevance Health, Inc. We established a new position in Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A., which supplies equipment and reagents to biopharmaceutical companies for the production of biologic drugs.

Markets are bracing for a greater than 90% chance the Fed will hike interest rates Wednesday afternoon. Kevin Green says the point of intrigue will come from how hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tone will be in the following press conference.

The CEO of the management team behind New Zealand's sovereign wealth fund warned of an impending slowdown in U.S. stock markets. The $54 billion pension fund returned 14.2% in the year to June, per the latest update.

Sales at U.S. retailers surged in August and posted the biggest increase in five months, offering another piece of evidence suggesting the economy sped up toward the end of summer.

Fears of an AI-driven Skynet scenario are overblown; physical and architectural constraints prevent any single AI from achieving exclusive global dominance. The real risks stem from AI errors and human misuse, particularly in critical sectors like defense, bioengineering, and energy, not from autonomous machine intent.

US equity futures and Treasuries are finding relief as traders wait for the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate decision, potentially hiking for the first time since 2023. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asks Canada to become the EU's first associate member.

The biggest trade in options on the Cboe VIX Index Tuesday was an unusual $6 million purchase of deep, deep in-the-money-puts.

Is there anything prettier than a consistently uptrending stock price chart? I'm drawn to these types of charts. I've always thought a consistent uptrend is an indication of strong buying power for a stock. However, while I can tell you if a chart looks like a consistent, methodical trend, it's hard to define it using data, which is necessary to create an indicator. That's why, until now, I've never put numbers behind my theory.

Consumers are facing a double whammy of rising oil prices and Treasury yields amid the U.S. war with Iran. Several economists found that higher energy costs alone have more than erased the benefit from fatter tax refunds this year.

With the Federal Reserve's policy decision due this afternoon, its chair Kevin Warsh is caught between two opposing forces - markets expecting a rate hike and President Trump pushing for a cut. With strong jobs data and inflation still hot, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.

Stephanie Link, Hightower chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the consumer, what she likes in the markets right now, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

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