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Why oil prices have not super-spiked despite the ongoing Strait of Hormuz standoff. Wall Street's top energy stock picks heading into the fall.
Equities are trading at historically high Shiller PE ratios (~42x), signaling elevated valuations and compressed long-term return expectations. With S&P 500 dividend yields near all-time lows (~1%), the expected return remains dependent on elevated PEs, while with high interest rates (~5%), the equity risk premium has turned negative.
July's back-to-back cooler CPI and PPI readings slashed September rate-hike odds from 55% to 32%, forcing investors to rethink hawkish Fed positioning. Despite Strait of Hormuz headlines spiking crude, monthly average oil prices fell, but gasoline has already climbed from $3.87 to $4.07 since July.
The CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July and was touted as a slowing of inflation. It is still below a target set long ago by the Fed, which is about 2%. The July figure is viewed as a possible block to the Fed raising rates. However, what is inflation and what is not ends up in the eye of the beholder.
Markets moved moderately to the upside. Cerebras and Cisco shares tumble after earnings.
SpaceX is planning a Texas natural gas plant to power a new chip facility, while gas turbines are already being used for campuses in Tennessee and Mississippi.
Cheniere Energy lifts 2026 EBITDA and production guidance as higher LNG volumes, margins and project progress boost results.
Massive spending on data centers and AI infrastructure can benefit “HALO” companies: hard assets, low obsolescence.
Equity markets continue to surge on AI optimism, but credit markets signal rising stress and potential systemic risks reminiscent of 2007. CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) rallied on strong results Wednesday despite CoreWeave's sharply worsening negative free cash flow and elevated default risk.
Unusual Machines delivered Q2 revenue of $16.7M, doubling sequentially and up 687% YoY, with gross margin rising to 34.7%. UMAC's valuation remains stretched at $27, requiring belief in rapid scaling to several hundred million in revenue and eventual profitability. Q3 revenue is expected to decline sequentially to $12–14M due to supply chain and production issues, but Q4 is guided to recover to $25M.
PPI continued the trend CPI by signaling inflation is cooling. @CharlesSchwab's Kevin Gordon expects the Fed to hold interest rates in its next meeting with current data in mind.
US wholesale inflation decelerated in July by more than estimated as energy and food costs fell, likely giving the Federal Reserve more time to assess price pressures at upcoming meetings. Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 in the week ending August 9.
Steve Grasso, CEO of Grasso Global, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, discuss AI price wars, cooling inflation, Fed cuts and geopolitical risks.
Union Bankshares delivers robust financial results, driven by double-digit EPS growth and disciplined loan loss provisioning. UNB trades at 1.3–1.35x tangible book and ~10x earnings, supported by a rising book value and strong credit quality. The loan book is heavily real estate-backed, with low provisioning (0.75% of loans) and manageable past-due exposure.
After leaving Wedbush, Dan Ives has launched a new merchant bank that he says will deliver the same research he's known for, but with people who want to innovate and grow in this "Fourth Industrial Revolution." The wide-ranging conversation touches on AI skepticism, China's role in the AI industry, and why he sees the AI industry going to heights that we may not yet be able to see.
