
Record Highs and Low Volatility: Is Wall Street Too Complacent Ahead of Midterm Elections?
BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky notes that while market vibes are “immaculate,” market history isn't.
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BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky notes that while market vibes are “immaculate,” market history isn't.

For investors in the equity market, it seems the stock market only knows one direction, and that is a move higher. The S&P 500 Index is in its fourth year of positive returns.

The VIX, Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge," has dipped to its lowest level this year, as stock markets approach record highs. Analysts said that the VIX's slide points to growing investor complacency, just as markets head into a traditionally turbulent post-summer period.

The S&P 500 reached a new record-high close of 7,798.99 on Thursday, 13 August 2026, before falling back on Friday to end the trading week at 7,785.76. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the level of stock prices is right where the dividend futures-based model forecasts it would be, provided investors are focused on 2027-Q1.

The Pacer US Large Cap Cash Cows Growth Leaders ETF (COWG) offers targeted exposure to companies with strong free cash flow margins amid elevated AI-driven capex cycles. I anticipate COWG may outperform QQQ and SPY over the next twelve months, especially if the AI market experiences a pullback.

Steven Major, global macro advisor at Tradition Dubai, says, “the focus is Jackson Hole already” for the bond market as he examines the factors he sees contributing to the move higher in the long end of the yield curve. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?

The consumer-price index rose 0.5% in July, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, Statistics Canada said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its statewide manufacturing index of business conditions rose to 20.6, its highest reading in four years.

In a survey, most firms said they would still report their financials four times a year but do fewer government filings given the option to file semiannually.

The S&P 500 is up more than 6% in 12 trading days to record levels. Why the booming profits just reported could turn out to be a case of companies “over-earning.

Retail earnings roll out this week, more tariffs are coming, Elon Musk's SpaceX holdings revealed, and more news to start your day.

Plus: JPMorgan ended banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, and cyber firms facing high-risk, low-reward choice under new U.S. hacking plan

US stock futures pointed to a tech-led start on Monday as investors returned from a third straight week of S&P 500 gains with another record in sight. Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 170 points or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures added 0.1% and Dow futures slipped around 0.1% in early trading.

July headline CPI eased to 3.4%, but the insurance implications are less benign than the broader disinflation story suggests. Motor vehicle insurance prices fell 4.5% year over year while maintenance and repair costs increased 6.6%, creating a widening pricing-versus-claims-cost gap.

Companies looking to tap new sources of profit are buying businesses from energy-focused fund managers.