AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eases from 12-week highs with bulls still in command

Market impact: Mildly bullish AUD/USD, but vulnerable to a corrective pullback.

The key fundamental support remains the market’s expectation that the RBA could deliver another rate hike in September or later in Q4 if Australian inflation and demand remain firm. That maintains a positive interest-rate differential narrative for the Australian dollar and could continue attracting carry-oriented demand. Confirmation from next week’s Australian CPI would be important: a persistently elevated trimmed-mean reading would reinforce tightening expectations, while a sharper moderation could unwind part of the AUD’s recent gains.

The US Treasury’s long-dated securities buyback plan is also a relative support for AUD/USD because it has weakened the broader bullish case for the US dollar, even as the current risk-averse tone limits demand for higher-beta currencies such as the AUD. This creates a mixed backdrop: the rate-expectations channel favors AUD, while deteriorating risk sentiment or renewed geopolitical concerns could support USD and cap upside.

Technically, the pair’s retreat from 0.7180 does not yet negate the broader bullish structure. The area around 0.7130 is the first meaningful test cited in the source; holding above it would preserve the upside bias and keep the 0.7200 region in focus, followed by the year-to-date high near 0.7280. A break below 0.7130 would increase the probability that the rally is entering a deeper correction, with the August 19 low just below 0.7070 becoming the next downside reference.

The immediate risk/reward is therefore less one-sided than the headline suggests. Momentum indicators show possible exhaustion, including bearish RSI divergence and a weakening MACD, raising the risk of profit-taking even if the medium-term fundamental narrative remains supportive. Because the technical assessment in the article was produced with AI assistance, those signals should be treated as confirmation tools rather than an independent catalyst.

Trader focus:

Australian CPI and any resulting changes in RBA hike pricing; US Treasury yields and the dollar’s response to the buyback program; global equity and commodity sentiment; and whether AUD/USD holds 0.7130 or loses that level. The fundamental bias remains constructive above support, but a sustained break lower would materially weaken the near-term bullish interpretation.