Gold finds support as US Dollar retreats ahead of Fed Minutes

The immediate bias for XAU/USD is mildly bullish but fragile. The softer US Dollar and modest pullback in long-term Treasury yields reduce two of gold’s main headwinds, while weaker US labor-market and inflation data have lowered expectations of further Fed tightening. This supports near-term demand for the non-yielding metal.

The key risk is the July FOMC minutes, due August 19 at 18:00 GMT. A dovish reaffirmation of the meeting’s 9–3 unchanged-rate decision could pressure the dollar and front-end Treasury yields, creating room for gold to extend its recovery. Conversely, any emphasis on persistent inflation, energy-price risks, or the need to retain tightening optionality could lift yields and trigger renewed selling in XAU/USD.

The macro signal is therefore mixed: weaker domestic data favor lower rates and gold, but Middle East-related energy inflation keeps the long end of the yield curve elevated. That limits the metal’s upside unless the minutes materially shift rate expectations or the dollar resumes its decline. The move appears more likely to remain event-driven and short-term than the start of a confirmed trend.

Technically, gold is trading just below the reported 100-day SMA near $4,381, making that area an important test of whether buyers have regained control. Failure to clear it would reinforce the range-bound interpretation. On the downside, a break below the cited $4,300 range support would weaken the recovery and expose the $4,219 area.

Traders should monitor:

• The tone of the FOMC minutes regarding inflation, labor-market risks, and the timing of future rate changes.
• The US Dollar Index and front-end Treasury yields for confirmation of the initial reaction.
• Whether XAU/USD can sustain trade above the $4,381 moving average rather than merely rebound from Tuesday’s losses.
• Energy prices and Middle East developments, which could simultaneously support safe-haven demand while increasing inflation and yield pressures.

Overall, the report is supportive for gold in the immediate term, but the directional conviction remains limited until the Fed minutes clarify whether markets should price a more dovish policy path.