Broadcom: Big, Bad News When Compute Leaders Need Optical Advantage (Upgrade)

Broadcom Inc. is upgraded to Buy, driven by its AI compute leadership and robust supply-chain positioning via the OpenAI Jalapeño processor and $200B Samsung HBM/foundry lock-in. AVGO's transition to an infrastructure-as-a-service revenue model, underpinned by multi-generational tech roadmaps, supports long-term premium valuations and a potential $4.3T market cap by FY2030. Key risks include potential U.S. bans on Chinese optical transceivers, which could disrupt the silicon photonics supply chain and pressure margins and deployment timelines.