توقعات أسعار الفضة: يواجه المشترون صعوبة دون المتوسط المتحرك البسيط لـ100 يوم

The immediate bias for XAG/USD is mildly bearish to neutral. The catalyst is a stronger US dollar following a slightly hotter headline PCE reading, while core PCE remained in line with expectations. That combination can pressure silver because it raises the relative attractiveness of dollar assets without materially forcing a major repricing of September Federal Reserve policy.

The more important market issue is the technical location near overhead resistance. Silver remains below the 100-day SMA around $68.31, with nearby resistance near $68.02 and repeated difficulty sustaining moves toward $70.00. This creates a technically vulnerable area where dollar strength or higher Treasury yields could trigger profit-taking and expose the lower support zone near $62.98, followed by the 50-day SMA around $61.32.

The bearish interpretation would strengthen if upcoming US data continues to support a firm dollar, pushes yields higher, or causes markets to reduce expectations for Fed easing. A decisive break below the 50-day SMA would be more significant than the current rejection alone, as it would suggest the attempted base is failing.

The bullish case remains viable because core inflation did not exceed expectations, the reported RSI and MACD still indicate positive underlying momentum, and silver retains exposure to precious-metals demand and industrial activity. A sustained move above the 100-day SMA—and especially the broader resistance area around $72.10–$72.31—would weaken the bearish technical setup and signal that buyers are regaining control.

Traders should monitor DXY, US Treasury yields, Fed communication, further inflation data, and gold’s direction. The next meaningful move in silver is likely to depend less on this isolated PCE surprise than on whether subsequent data confirms a persistent dollar-and-yield recovery or allows the market to refocus on disinflation and potential monetary easing.