British Pound: Upside remains intact above 1.3605 against US Dollar - UOB

Market impact: Mildly bullish GBP/USD, but primarily technical rather than fundamental.

UOB’s maintained 1–3 week upside view keeps 1.3700 as the bullish objective, provided GBP/USD holds above 1.3605. The level is therefore likely to become an important near-term positioning threshold: sustained trading above it could encourage dip-buying and reinforce sterling momentum, while a decisive break below it would undermine the setup and potentially trigger profit-taking or stop-related selling.

The signal is not a new macro catalyst. It is an extension of an existing technical view, with UOB noting that near-term price action has softened into range trading. Consequently, the immediate market effect is likely limited unless spot either reclaims the upper end of the cited 1.3630–1.3665 range or breaks the 1.3605 support area.

Bullish interpretation:

Holding above 1.3605 would preserve the higher-low structure and leave room for a move toward 1.3700. A weaker US dollar, softer US inflation data, or reduced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening would provide the macro confirmation needed to extend GBP/USD gains.

Bearish interpretation:

The pair’s failure to maintain the recent upside, particularly ahead of US PCE inflation data, would expose the call as vulnerable to dollar-driven reversal. A firm US inflation reading could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, making a break below 1.3605 more likely and invalidating the 1.3700 scenario. FXStreet identifies US PCE data and subsequent Fed-rate expectations as key sources of potential impetus for GBP/USD.

Trading horizon:

The implication is short-term range-to-bullish over one to three weeks, rather than a durable change in the fundamental sterling trend.

Monitor next:

GBP/USD’s response around 1.3605, whether it can sustain trade above 1.3665, US PCE inflation and Treasury yields, Federal Reserve communication, and UK data or Bank of England repricing. A close below 1.3605 would materially weaken the bullish interpretation; a sustained break above the recent range highs would strengthen it.