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Wall Street faces a week with fresh inflation data, hedge fund holdings, and several major technology events expected to shape investor sentiment.
Weak US jobs data reduces the risk of a September Fed rate hike, while the upcoming CPI report may determine the next move in interest rates and EUR/USD.
AI beneficiaries have seen asset prices surge, leading to bubble speculations. Yet S&P 500 Q2 EPS growth of ~50% supports continued exposure.
Tech stocks zip about on the latest AI expectations. Plus: A Financial Flashback to 55 years ago, when Nixon dropped the gold standard.
The Fed's lack of forward guidance is driving both nominal and real yields higher, steepening the yield curve. July CPI is expected to be modest, but the market's reaction—especially in long-end rates—will be critical for risk assets.
Celsius Holdings trades at a steep discount despite strong underlying Alani Nu momentum and a peer-leading valuation gap. Recent earnings misses stem from self-inflicted SKU and inventory management issues, masking solid retail sales growth. Management's operational missteps have drawn activist attention, with the Rockstar Energy founder seeking leadership change.
First, Busey demonstrates robust financial health, with a conservative balance sheet and CET1 ratio of 12.5%, well above regulatory minimums. Net income attributable to common shareholders rose 30% year-over-year, driven by stable net interest income, lower expenses, and reduced loan loss provisions. Non-accrual loans represent just 0.5% of the loan book, with provisions exceeding $160M, reflecting prudent underwriting and strong credit quality.
Londian Wason New Energy Tech is targeting a $75 million U.S. IPO to fund global production and R&D expansion in copper foils for lithium batteries. FOIL has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improving margins but faces high leverage, negative cash flow, and significant execution and concentration risks. IPO proceeds will not reduce debt; management prioritizes expansion and next-gen technology development over immediate profitability or balance sheet repair.
Bank of America is warning that market euphoria has reached levels that could leave investors vulnerable to a pullback, with its proprietary sentiment gauge approaching an extreme reading last seen in 2021.
Stocks, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, have surged on renewed institutional risk appetite, with high-beta names outperforming. My proprietary 'Smells Funny Index' signals economic weakness is bottoming, as durable goods and capex show marked improvement.
Markets embraced a familiar bad-news-is-good-news setup this week, as softer labor data and lower oil pulled rates lower, reduced Fed tightening urgency, and pushed major indexes to fresh records again. Oil surrendered war-risk premium, with WTI tumbling 9% as Iran-Oman transit talks progressed, though attacks on UAE-linked vessels kept Hormuz flows well below pre-conflict norms again this week. The labor market stumbled again as payrolls fell 23k, prior months were revised down 103k, participation slipped, and wage growth slowed to its lowest since 2021, meaningfully easing Fed pressure.
Loar Holdings delivered record Q2 results, with 39.4% sales growth, 47.4% adjusted EBITDA growth, and raised 2026 guidance. LOAR's organic growth remains robust, but GAAP net income is pressured by higher interest and amortization from debt-funded acquisitions. Free cash flow is strong and leverage is manageable at 3.1x EBITDA, but elevated debt limits room for operational missteps or further large M&A.
Iran and Oman are still discussing a temporary arrangement for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but attacks on regional energy infrastructure and major disagreements over transit rules are complicating negotiations. Bloomberg News White House Correspondent Skylar Woodhouse and Bloomberg News Middle East Correspondent Abeer Abu Omar join Bloomberg This Weekend and explain to hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini that even with an agreement, shipowners and traders expect it could take weeks or months for oil flows to approach normal levels.
Firefighters extinguished a blaze at a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan. Iran-backed Houthis reportedly said they carried out a drone strike on the facility.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts maintains a 'Sell' rating despite governance improvements and a shift to self-management. BHR's $480 million Ashford termination fee is now crystallized, funded by accelerated asset sales rather than supporting the balance sheet. The company's shrinking hotel portfolio and fully floating-rate debt structure heighten earnings risk and liquidity concerns.
