USD/CHF Price Forecast: 100-day SMA tested as US Dollar tanks

Market impact: bearish USD/CHF, with the immediate driver coming from the US-rate and liquidity channel rather than Swiss-specific fundamentals.

The Treasury buyback announcement triggered a sharp fall in US Treasury yields and a broad US-dollar selloff. That reduces the relative yield advantage of dollar assets and removes support from the USD leg of USD/CHF. The reported decline toward the 100-day SMA therefore reflects a repricing of US rates and dollar positioning, not necessarily a sudden improvement in Swiss economic fundamentals.

Technical implication:

downside momentum has strengthened after USD/CHF broke below the 50-day SMA at 0.8084, while the RSI fell to 36.48. A sustained break below the 100-day SMA near 0.7975 would increase the probability of a test of the 200-day SMA around 0.7932 and then 0.7900. These levels are important because a failure of medium-term moving-average support could encourage trend-following selling and trigger additional long-dollar position reduction.

The move may also be reinforced if broader risk sentiment deteriorates: CHF typically benefits from safe-haven demand, which would add a second bearish force to USD/CHF. Conversely, if the Treasury announcement is interpreted as a temporary liquidity operation rather than a lasting change in US fiscal, monetary, or rate expectations, the dollar decline could stabilize and the pair could mean-revert.

For the bearish interpretation to weaken, USD/CHF would need to reclaim 0.8000, followed by resistance near 0.8042 and the 50-day SMA at 0.8084. A recovery in US yields, a less-dovish interpretation of Federal Reserve communication, or evidence that the Treasury operation does not materially alter longer-term funding conditions would all reduce the persistence of the initial move.

What traders should monitor next:

US Treasury yields—especially longer maturities—Dollar Index performance, follow-through in EUR/USD and gold, FOMC communication, and whether USD/CHF holds or decisively loses the 100-day SMA. The near-term bias is bearish, but the medium-term outlook remains conditional on whether the yield shock develops into a durable repricing of US rates.