Marriott: The Loyalty Engine Is Outgrowing The Hotel Cycle

Marriott International is rated Buy, with a fair value estimate of $400, reflecting premium quality at a relative discount to Hilton. MAR's earnings growth is driven by robust fee revenue, Bonvoy membership expansion, co-branded credit card income, and aggressive share repurchases, despite modest RevPAR gains. Net room growth, conversions, and a large pipeline support sustained high-single-digit fee and EBITDA growth, with 2026–2027 EPS projected to rise 11–14% annually.