HF Sinclair: In A Sweet Spot If Russian Supply Does Not Return

HF Sinclair (DINO) is rated Buy, with 50% upside to a $133 price target, driven by sustained tightness in global refined products markets. DINO's diversified model, including midstream and marketing, buffers refining margin volatility; the upcoming lubricants spinoff provides additional upside potential. Consensus forecasts underestimate the duration of elevated crack spreads, assuming rapid normalization, while my base case expects prolonged high margins due to persistent geopolitical disruptions.