Euro: Further gains eyed toward 1.1800 against US Dollar – UOB

EUR/USD: Moderately bullish, but primarily a technical bias rather than a new fundamental catalyst.

UOB’s view keeps the medium-term upside scenario intact: EUR/USD has scope toward 1.1725 over the coming weeks and potentially 1.1800–1.1850 over one to three months, provided the pair holds above 1.1630. The positive weekly MACD and recent upside break support the constructive interpretation, while near-term consolidation around 1.1650–1.1685 suggests limited immediate momentum.

For traders, the key market mechanism is likely relative dollar weakness and continued demand for the euro, rather than an immediate change in ECB or Fed policy expectations. A sustained move above the recent 1.1710–1.1725 area would strengthen the bullish continuation case and bring the 1.1800 target into focus. Conversely, failure to clear that zone could leave EUR/USD range-bound and vulnerable to profit-taking.

The main invalidation level is 1.1630. A decisive break below it would weaken UOB’s positive structure, potentially shifting attention back toward the lower end of the recent range. The outlook is also highly sensitive to US yields, Federal Reserve expectations, Eurozone data, and any renewed safe-haven demand for the dollar.

Market impact:

bullish for EUR/USD and generally negative for the broad dollar if the technical view attracts follow-through. The expected effect is near- to medium-term, with confirmation requiring a break above recent highs and continued support above 1.1630.